Venice 82, who will win? The victory of The Voice of Hind Rajb is considered certain, but...

Everything seems easy on the eve of Venice 82: the Tunisian film The Voice of Hind Rajb appears to have no rivals in its race for the Golden Lion. Kaouther Ben Hania's feature film monopolized attention in the Lagoon for days, already becoming the symbolic film of the edition. The film reconstructs the dramatic last hours of life of a Gazan child trapped in a car riddled with bodies by Israeli tanks north of the Gaza Strip, in a part of the territory where even rescue vehicles have great difficulty accessing.

The incident dates back to early 2024 and caused a stir because the Red Crescent, in an attempt to obtain the necessary permits to save the 5-year-old girl, published excerpts of the phone call the child had been having for hours with rescuers in Ramallah. Those audio recordings are at the heart of the film, which is a work of fiction, with actors playing the rescuers on the phone with the child, but interacting with Hind Rajb's real audio: the voice that moved the Lido is precisely that of the child protagonist of the story, not an actress playing her. The film, explosive in its timing and themes, was highly praised for how it handles this controversial material in a mixture of documentary and fiction that most found cinematically effective and humanly respectful.

If The Voice of Hind Rajb doesn't win, who will take the Lion?

This year, more than a strong favorite, there is an expected winner, but this writer also sees another possibility, less likely but not to be underestimated: that the jury, aware of the political climate and perhaps eager to appear impartial and not influenced by external factors, will award it one of the most important prizes, such as the Grand Jury Prize, but not the Golden Lion. According to rumors leaked in recent hours, the film might even be out of the Palmares: a scenario that would lead to endless controversy, very unlikely but not impossible. Over the years we have learned that the jury's bubble is almost impenetrable, and inside it, the atmosphere can be very, very different from the general one.

If the Golden Lion doesn't go to Tunisia, then who would be the favorites? It's hard to say in this year of very high competition quality. Personally, if I were to follow my gut instinct, two films made me think of a possible Lion upon leaving the screening room. The most convincing, the “sweet” film that brings everyone together with its hopeful messages and exquisite craftsmanship, is Silent Friend by Hungarian director Ildikó Enyedi. With a cosmopolitan cast led by Tony Leung Chiu-wai, Léa Seydoux, and Martin Wuttke, the film weaves a series of stories from different eras into a single narrative watched over and in some cases almost intervened by a large ginkgo biloba tree, listed among the protagonists and in the official cast.

In this writer's opinion, it's hard to see one of the edition's surprises left out of the awards: À pied d'œuvre by Valérie Donzelli. Thanks to the presence of Stéphane Brizé, the French director and screenwriter who will champion his compatriot, in case of a surprise Lion, I would bet on this quiet drama that brings together a fierce critique of the gig economy and the perception of poverty with a radical vision of how an artist dedicates their life to art, even to extreme consequences.

Another title that could find a place in the Palmares and perhaps even an unexpected Lion could be Father Mother Sister Brother, Jim Jarmusch's much-loved new film. It seems bizarre that Hollywood titles and the Netflix contingent (Jay Kelly, Frankenstein, A House of Dynamite) would leave empty-handed, but in a few hours, we will have all the confirmations and denials.

Will Italy find a place in the Palmares?

The answer seems to be yes, in a year where the Italian contingent performed much better than usual, often receiving very positive responses. After the triumphant reception of Toni Servillo's portrayal of the President of the Republic in La Grazia by the American press, rumors of a possible Volpi Cup for the internationally beloved actor have never died down. However, he will have to contend with The Rock, the male lead in The Smashing Machine, and the lead in À pied d'œuvre.

The challenge on the female front, however, is wide open, as no single performance has overshadowed the others. This could be an opportunity for a smaller film “from the cinematic peripheries of the world” to take home an award. The winner will speak an Asian language, according to the latest rumors. For the Mastroianni award, we would like to see the young protagonist of László Nemes' Orphan recognized.

To summarize, here is the possible list of awards for tonight:

• Golden Lion - "Silent Friend"
• Grand Jury Prize - "The Voice of Hind Rajb"
• Special Jury Prize - "Father Mother Sister Brother" 
• Best Director - Gianfranco Rosi for "Sotto le Nuvole" / "The Smashing Machine" by Benny Safdie
• Best Screenplay - Jim Jarmusch for "Father Mother Sister Brother"
• Best Actor - Toni Servillo for "La Grazia"
• Best Actress - not predicted
• Mastroianni Award (best young performer): the young performers of "The Girl" or "Orphan"