Cannes, Where Has the Palm Gone? The Winner Predictions and the Balance Sheet of a Not-So-Stellar Year on the Croisette

It hasn't been a memorable year on the Croisette. Looking at the international critics' grids, the immediate reactions, and the atmosphere among the press and industry insiders, the judgment seems rather shared: the Cannes 2026 competition offered several good films, but very few titles truly destined to leave a mark as happened last year (an average year) with A Simple Accident, Sirat, or Sentimental Value.

A result that sounds like a paradox. While Hollywood seems increasingly intent on emancipating itself from the festival circuit to launch its potential Oscar contenders (just think of One Battle After Another, Sinners, or Marty Supreme), international cinema, on the other hand, continues to find its decisive springboard for global recognition precisely at Cannes. This time, however, what was truly missing were genuinely exciting films, and there weren't even too many films that everyone agreed on: this could prove to be a problem in a moment of tug-of-war between Hollywood and the Côte d'Azur like this. Surprises, in short, were few and all out of competition.

The great authors and the limited Anglophone cinema present worked well at Cannes, the French fared poorly

The great authors present in competition rarely erred, but almost none truly thrilled. Cristian Mungiu with Fjord, Pawel Pawlikowski with Fatherland, and Andrej Zvyagintsev with Minotaur delivered solid works, controlled, often very elegant, but lacking that spark that transforms an excellent film into an event. Among these, Fatherland and Minotaur are probably the two most mature and accomplished works of the entire selection, strong candidates for the final victory. It's also interesting that they are among the very few films in competition to address the present without resorting to historical metaphor or the distance of the past. On the contrary, much of the European cinema seen this year seems to have preferred to reinterpret today through collective memories, wars, and distant historical traumas.

French cinema, on the other hand, seemed weaker than usual, surprisingly lacking a true frontrunner. The titles that garnered the most consensus were Notre Salut and Moulin, two works united by a return to the ghosts of Vichy France and the theme of collective responsibility in the face of the rise of the far right. An evidently very contemporary discourse, which, however, does not seem to have produced the film destined to dominate the awards list.

The limited American and Anglo-Saxon cinema shown on the Croisette, however, convinced almost everyone, albeit without particular bursts of enthusiasm. Ira Sachs with The Man I Love and James Gray with Paper Tiger confirmed their solidity, choosing very classic and unsurprising paths. German cinema had an excellent year, thanks also to the extraordinary performance of The Dreamed Adventures' protagonist, Yana Radaeva.

It was a very queer Cannes, both in and out of competition

Where Cannes 2026 seems to have found a precise identity, however, is in queer storytelling and in the works of younger generations. It's no coincidence that two of the most discussed films of the festival are precisely Coward by Lukas Dhont and La Bola Negra by Los Javis, both set against the backdrop of the world wars and interested in exploring the construction of masculinity, desire, and the performativity of male identity.

Between the two, La Bola Negra is probably the most ambitious and talked-about film of the entire edition. Produced by Pedro Almodóvar, supported by a very strong critical machine, and much loved by the international press, it remains the most natural candidate for the Palme d'Or. At the same time, however, it is also a visibly unresolved, excessive work, incapable of truly containing all its narrative and symbolic ambitions.

Coward, on the contrary, is perhaps the most elegant and accomplished film among those in competition directed by a young author: rigorous, highly controlled, and much more precise in how it intertwines war, desire, and spectacle. Precisely for this reason, it could end up becoming the classic film awarded "on the side," perhaps with a recognition for direction or acting.

The general feeling is that the true quality of the year was seen primarily in the parallel sections. In Un Certain Regard, critical consensus seemed to go compactly towards Everytime, hailed by many as the best film of the festival, but in the end, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma by Jane Schoenbrun won, also taking home the Queer Palm.

The queer presence out of competition was also very strong: Club Kid captivated audiences with its balance of clubbing culture, irony, and family melodrama, while the surprising animated film Jim Queen transformed the Parisian gay scene into an anarchic and deliberately excessive comedy, somewhere between South Park and Rick & Morty. Among the festival's revelations, Gradiva should also be mentioned, a coming-of-age story set during a school trip to Campania that reminded many of the emotional delicacy of A Difficult Year and certainly better recent French adolescent cinema. This title will probably win the Camera d'Or for best debut film.

The 2026 Palme d'Or Predictions

Palme d'Or: Minotaur / Fatherland
Grand Prix: La Bola Negra
Jury Prize: All of a Sudden
Best Director: Lukas Dhont, Coward
Best Screenplay: Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Best Actor: Swann Arlaud, Notre Salut
Best Actress: Yana Radaeva, The Dreamed Adventures

However, the feeling remains that this year the jury might surprise more than usual. The very absence of a unanimously recognized masterpiece makes the awards list particularly open, with several titles that could suddenly find a place in the main categories.